2023 Hurricanes Could Almost Double, According to New Forecast. What to Know and Do

Our region is no stranger to extreme weather like hurricanes, cyclones, and tropical storms. These weather events may be likely to threaten Paradise Coast each hurricane season, from June 1 through November 20. In May the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) advised that the 2023 hurricane season would be nearly normal. However, in early August, the agency upgraded the season to “above normal” activity and advised that the number of hurricanes possible could nearly double. What’s to blame for this more treacherous prediction? Keep reading.

What to Know

A strengthening El Nino is the cause for this more severe hurricane forecast. You’ve likely heard of this weather term before. In essence, it’s a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that ultimately causes the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast to experience weather that’s wetter than normal and increased flooding, while producing warmer and drier conditions in the northern part of the country.

What this means: Potentially more storms and hurricanes that may impact our region.

Let’s talk about what’s projected to happen between now and the end of hurricane season.

The New Hurricane Forecast

Named Storms: Upgraded from an average of 14 storms, to up to 21

Major Hurricanes: Upgraded from an average of 3 major hurricanes, to up to 5

The Power of a Hurricane

The strength of a hurricane is measured by its sustained wind speed and potential to cause damage—the higher the speed, the greater the possible damage. The system that quantifies these measurements is called the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The scale rates hurricanes from 1 to 5. The speeds and potential damages to well-built frame homes for each category are as follows, according to NOAA’s National Weather Service:

Category 1: 74 to 95 mile per hour winds; very dangerous winds causing some damage

- possible damage to roofs, shingles, gutters, and vinyl siding
- toppled trees with shallow roots
- power outages from a few days to several days

Category 2: 96 to 110 mile per hour winds; extremely dangerous winds causing extensive damage

- major damage to roofs and siding
- snapped or uprooted trees with shallow roots will block many roadways
- power outages from many days to weeks

Category 3: 111 to 129 mile per hour winds; devasting damage

- major damage to roof decking and gables, or removal altogether
- snapped, or uprooted trees that block numerous roads
- Electricity and water unavailable for many days to weeks

Category 4: 130 to 156 mile per hour winds; catastrophic damage

- severe damage to framed homes, losses to roof structure and some exterior walls
- most trees snapped or uprooted
- most power poles downed, and power outages for weeks to months

Category 5: 157 mile per hour winds, or greater; catastrophic damage

- framed homes destroyed from roof failure and collapsed walls
- fallen trees
- downed power poles with power outages for weeks to months

Naples, and other parts of Southwest Florida impacted by Hurricane Ian in 2022, has proven that our region is resilient. However, we should never underestimate the power of a hurricane, no matter its category.

What to Do

Be prepared for extreme weather. Here’s how:

Establish an Emergency Plan

It’s wise to have a plan already in place before severe weather comes your way, rather than having to react without direction in the midst of danger. Establish a plan for your family that includes an emergency meeting place, emergency contacts, and supplies like first aid kits. Remember to consider the logistics of handling family pets during such emergencies.

Stay Tuned In

Stay aware and informed about approaching extreme weather. Be sure to check your local weather forecast for information and updates on emergency watches or warnings issued by the National Weather Service. Sign up to receive text and email alerts to make sure you stay up to date about changing conditions and instructions in your area. Consider investing in a portable weather radio as a supplementary source for information.

Follow the Instructions of Authorities

If a hurricane approaches, and you’re ever tempted to try to remain inside of your home when authorities advise that you evacuate to safety, be mindful of the power that hurricanes wield and follow expert advice in order to keep you and your family safe.

Beware of Downed Power Lines and Standing Water When Traveling to Safety

When traveling during a severe weather event be watchful for downed power lines. As much as possible, avoid areas of standing water and reduce your speed in order to prevent hydroplaning. Don’t ride motorcycles, scooters, or bicycles during storms or in other severe weather conditions.

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2023 Hurricanes Could Almost Double, According to New Forecast. What to Know and Do